Leeds vs Man Utd preview: Carrick's Elland Road test

United go to Elland Road on Sunday with one league win from six and a head coach who has lost five of his last six meetings with Daniel Farke. If you were designing the worst possible fixture for Michael Carrick this week, you'd struggle to do better.

Kick-off is 2pm, live on Sky Sports. Leeds are above us in the table, they've got the crowd, and the Guardian reckons they're overdue a first home league win over United since 2002.

That last bit stings. It's also fair.

Six games, six points, one win over Ipswich

This is United's poorest start since 1986. The only league win came against Ipswich, and the Guardian's table has us 13th going into the weekend, three points behind Leeds.

The Spurs draw last Saturday was the season in miniature. Bryan Mbeumo spun and finished Matheus Cunha's cross on 73 minutes, Rodrigo Bentancur got himself sent off, and we still couldn't see it out. Sandro Tonali floated one in from the left in added time, Lisandro Martínez didn't clear it, and Dominic Solanke headed past Senne Lammens. Ten-man Tottenham, who'd scored twice all season before that, took a point.

Then Madrid. Pablo Barrios scored after 53 seconds, Leny Yoro was sent off, and Atlético won 2-0 (Sky Sports).

Leeds are better than us right now

No point pretending otherwise. Farke's side are seventh on nine points, with two wins, three draws and one defeat (BBC Sport). That defeat was 2-1 at Arsenal last weekend, and the Guardian's view was that the champions were unconvincing for 65 minutes of it.

They also won the last meeting at Old Trafford, 2-1 in April (Goal). The 1-1 draw here in January was Ruben Amorim's last game in charge. Elland Road has a habit of ending things.

Team news: Martínez is in, Shaw and Mainoo are the worry

Confirmed

• Lisandro Martínez is available. He apologised on Thursday for going after director of football Jason Wilcox in Madrid, and the club say the matter is closed (Sky Sports). The Telegraph reports he's been cleared to face Leeds.
• Luke Shaw and Kobbie Mainoo both missed Tuesday. "They've not travelled, both picked up issues in the game at the weekend so they're out," Carrick said on Monday. Nobody has said whether they'll make Sunday.

Reported

• Martínez was fined, according to BBC Sport and Sky Sports. The club haven't confirmed it.
• Goal lists Patrick Dorgu, Manuel Ugarte, Benjamin Sesko and Tom Heaton as sidelined. The Yorkshire Evening Post says Carrick expects Dorgu (hamstring) to miss a number of weeks, and Ugarte's knee will keep him out for most of the season.
• Matthijs de Ligt travelled to Madrid as he works his way back.

Leeds are without Joe Rodon, Mateo Joseph and Daniel James, per Goal.

Carrick is due to speak before the game. We'll update this when he does.

"We'll come out fighting"

That was Carrick's promise before Madrid. He didn't duck the situation either. "We hoped for a lot more, we expected a lot more, and we are where we are," he told reporters, as the Guardian reported. "I understand that when it is not going well there is a real clamour and a feeling that it's a disaster. That's not our mindset and it's certainly not mine."

Fine words. Fifty-three seconds into Tuesday night, they were already looking thin.

Where this gets won and lost

Carrick wants control of games. Against Spurs, by the Guardian's account, he had close to none, and the small details tell you why.

Lammens nearly gifted Solanke a goal inside the opening minutes with a loose pass out, then dawdled on his own line when Martínez rolled one back to him. Youri Tielemans waited for a ball to bounce in midfield and Spurs were away. Yoro, picked at right-back, had to slide in to save a scattered back line.

Do that at Elland Road and you won't get away with it. Spurs couldn't finish. Leeds have Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Noah Okafor, and former Leeds defender Matt Kilgallon told Goal that containing Bruno Fernandes is the way to "stop" United. He's not wrong. Carrick admitted our captain is still "carrying something".

Our opinion: the brightest thing about the Spurs game was Carlos Baleba's first touch off the bench, a spin and flick into Fernandes that nobody else in that midfield had tried all afternoon. If Mainoo isn't fit, Baleba should start. Sitting deep and hoping won't work here.

Then there's left-back. Dorgu's out, Shaw's a doubt, and Leeds will go straight down that side if they smell a makeshift option.

Our predicted XI (a prediction, not team news)

Based on the last two line-ups and the injury list. It hinges on Shaw and Mainoo.

4-2-3-1: Lammens; Yoro, Maguire, Martínez, Shaw (or Heaven); Tielemans, Mainoo (or Baleba); Mbeumo, Fernandes, Rashford; Cunha.

Yoro's red came in the Champions League, so it shouldn't rule him out of Premier League games.

Farke has Carrick's number

Five defeats in six. The only win came in a League Cup tie when Carrick was at Middlesbrough (Guardian).

That's not a coincidence over six games. Farke's teams have had the measure of Carrick's, and nothing about our last fortnight suggests that's about to flip.

What a defeat would actually mean

Paul Merson wrote in his Sky Sports column that Carrick is "in trouble", while saying he hoped he doesn't get the sack. Reports linking Brighton's Fabian Hürzeler with the job are speculation for now. The club have said nothing.

Lose on Sunday and we're bottom half after seven games, with Martínez's complaints about recruitment still hanging over Carrington. A draw keeps the wolves at the door rather than in the house. A win buys him a fortnight and an argument.

Verdict

Leeds are in better form, they're higher up, and their manager knows exactly how to beat ours. On paper United have the better players, and Martínez has plenty to prove after this week.

We'll say 1-1. It won't be enough, and Carrick knows it.

How do you see it? Score predictions and your XI in the comments.